Ebola Update: 1.4 million possible infections and the press is finding it harder to get answers

American troops begin to move into Liberia as the CDC predicts up to 1.4 million infected with Ebola by January 2015 if nothing is done to stem the tide of this deadly disease.

CDC Shocks with a Brutal Warning

The U.S. CDC announced last week that if nothing is done to improve medical conditions in Liberia and Sierra Leone up to 1.4 million people could be infected with Ebola in just those two countries by January 20^th, 2015.   The number represents 13.5% of the total population of both countries.

While the official death count is 2,900 the CDC estimates the actual number of cases and deaths is 2.5 times higher due to under-reporting. Many patients avoid medical centers because they fear the treatment won’t help them or expose loved ones. There are also reports of abandoned Ebola victims in their homes.

Health care workers have a higher rate of death than their patients. In Sierra Leone out of 113 HCWs who contracted the disease, 81 have died, a 72 percent death rate, when 40 percent was previously reported.

American Troops Already On the Ground in Liberia

Stripes.com reported the first C-17 flights arrived on September 18^th and the first American troops arrived this past weekend.   The troops are in a support function only to help assist and protect medical workers. President Obama submitted a budget reprogramming request of $500 million which could push the Pentagon spending against Ebola to over $1 billion.

There have been sporadic reports of medical teams being attacked by locals as they assist the infected or prepare bodies for cremation.   The troops also will likely help protect medical workers from threats of violence.

Is Ebola Mutating?

This is a big question and our own Jim Wilson, MD of Ascel Bio and the University of Nevada, Reno recently writes that yes, they are seeing mutations.

“While Ebola-Zaire virus has not historically acquired genetic mutations that enable more efficient transmission from human to human, the longer the virus is allowed to transmit in West Africa, the greater the danger for such mutations to occur. At the present time, substantial mutations of Ebola-Zaire virus have been documented, which is the result of a multitude of human-to-human transmission events. So far, a substantive change in the transmission mechanism of the virus has not been reported.”  [bold type Dr. Wilson's]

Panic helps no one

Wilson also talked about some hysteria he’s starting to see in medical circles, not just the general media.

“As our country engages more deeply in Ebola response, we need our physicians to

1) all be on the same education and situational awareness page,

2) turn to credible sources of information, and

3) be resistant to hype.

But now we directly observe some of our emergency and critical care physicians expressing the opinion that “Ebola is airborne”.  We have directly seen this opinion at the local response level, and once the opinion is expressed in the meeting the thoughtful, measured conversation regarding the proper management of suspect Ebola cases is derailed. “

Neither Does Suppressing Data

Finally, Wilson writes there are indications some government agencies are being less than forthcoming with the state of Ebola in their countries. He writes,

“Over the past two weeks, Ascel Bio has become increasingly concerned about information suppression, which interferes with accurate assessments. In the week ending 20140913, Ascel Bio noted an insistence by Nigeria to journalists to soften their reporting on Ebola, citing fear and panic as unnecessary side effects. In the week ending 20140921, both Liberia and Guinea reported a similar insistence on reducing media coverage, with the government restriction on media being called “an alarming assault on press freedom.’”

What do you think of the CDC’s numbers? Do you think the medical community is panicking over the disease? What do you think of US troops assisting the health care workers already on the front lines of this medical war?

If you’re an M.D. or D.O. you can join the conversation at our Infectious Disease Hub, a collaboration of dozens of physicians looking to share information on Ebola and quell the epidemic as quickly as possible.