Pollen Count Could Double by 2040

ragweed in the US, ragweed map

Change by days in ragweed season, 1995 to 2011

 

You might be reaching for the tissue box twice as often in coming years. Pollen counts are expected to double by 2040 according to a recent study.

As many as 40 million Americans suffer from some form of airborne-triggered allergy; the possibility of doubling pollen counts sounds like seasonal torture.

Why the Big Increase?

You can blame climate change. In the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), one study tracked seasonal changes from 1995 to 2011. The researchers discovered an increase in the ragweed pollen season by as much as 13 to 27 days throughout the central United States and Canada.

The National Climate Assessment released last week by the White House notes an increase in ozone and carbon pollution contributes to pollen counts, as well. These factors are thought to contribute to a rise in allergy sufferers and an increase in asthma. In just 10 years, asthma rates rose from 7.3 percent to 8.4 percent of the population.

How Pharma is Responding

Pharma has responded with a roster of new prescription drugs. This year alone they’ve introduced three SLIT drugs, tablets that dissolve under the tongue. They developed Oralair and Grastek for grass allergens and Ragwitek for ragweed.

The US allergy drug market reached $7.2 billion in 2012 and some experts predict it could top $14.7 billion by 2015. The researchers contribute the increase to an aging population, the introduction of new drugs, expansion of over-the-counter drug access and to environmental conditions.

Researchers from the published article, “Climate Change and Our Environment: The Effect on Respiratory and Allergic Disease,” concluded, “as Rachael Carson so aptly stated in Silent Spring, “This is an era of specialists, each of whom sees his own problem and is unaware of or intolerant of the larger frame into which it fits.”48 For the allergy community, we should consider the larger frame and be concerned with anticipating the needs of patients and adapting practices to meet those needs. We will need to adapt, as physicians and researchers always have, to changes in the pattern and presentation of disease that may result from climate change.”

As a physician have you seen an increase in severity or occurrence of allergies with your patients? Have you noticed regional differences when you compare notes with your peers? Do you think climate change is a contributing factor to allergies? We will be discussing this in depth inside Sermo, if you’re an M.D. or D.O. please join us.

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